I'm Tired...

Not just physically (it has already been a long day) but mentally and emotionally as well. I stayed in the office until about 5...that in itself was draining. I had to take a few breaks to go walking so I could get my head wrapped around some ideas I have for my thesis proposal.

After I left I came home and set the DVR to record the Democratic debate...then I looked to see what else was on. I settled on Legends of the Fall. I caught it pretty soon after it came on so I didn't miss too much. Plus it was on an HD channel. I've seen it before but it has been a while...needless to say, it left me emotionally drained...tired (if you've seen it you know what I'm talking about).

Then I switched over to MSNBC to get ready for the debate (I also popped popcorn)...Keith Olberman was on. He's one of the few outspoken critics of President Bush in the mainstream media. I respect that...but he's very polarizing which I wish wasn't the case. So then I got to watch the Debate...the 20TH DEBATE!!!

I haven't seen all of them but I have watched most...and this has left me mentally tired. The last few haven't been anything new...mainly just trying to throw in some new strategies and attack methods...I am more confident than ever that Obama is the best choice...but that is mostly subjective.

Nothing enlightening in this post...just wanted to write something.

To bed now...lots to read (and retain) tomorrow...

China got hit by a snowstorm...global warming must be wrong

I recently received an email from a good friend with the subject titled “Interesting”. This friend and I have very different beliefs about politics and the environment…however, I very much appreciate him, as he challenges me to think, research, and draw my own conclusions. The link pointed to a web news article in the “National Post”, which is part of the Canada.com network. I’m admittedly unfamiliar with this network so I am unaware if it is strongly biased in any direction.

I noticed 3 things when I clicked the link…first, the title “Forget Global Warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age”, second, I noticed the section of the site where this article was located: Opinion. Third, I scrolled to the bottom of the page to see how many people had left comments…but there wasn’t a comments section. This is unfortunate and is abysmal in the Web 2.0 world where social discussion (and therefore social media) is the heart of free-thinking on the net.

Now don’t misunderstand what I’m about to say. I think opinions are extremely important to have and express (I do it here myself). My main requirement for listening to opinions is that the owner of the said opinion must know why they have it in the first place. The ability to have an opinion is one of those freedoms that we are given by the First Amendment of the Constitution of the United States (just like free-thinking)…and are therefore healthy…(that was a digression from this article and can be labeled as a “rant”).

I had the sense when this link opened that it was supposed to be like a booyah or something like that (remember 4^th grade)…but since I noticed it was in the “Opinion” section first I just went ahead and gave it a read and didn’t let my emotions get the best of me.

The article was indeed fairly interesting (or amusing…I get those emotions mixed up). And instead of writing my reply to the friend, I decided just to make a blog post and then go from there…

Instead of scrutinizing the article line for line, I want to make a few points and hopefully you will be able to draw some conclusions for yourself (caution: this will require thinking).

I recommend you follow along or read it beforehand if you like:

Forget global warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age:

1. There is a major difference between climate and weather. I don’t have to cite my sources for this because even the most cynical of skeptics have a good understanding of it (if they are educated). Therefore, we need to understand that erratic/isolated events have very little meaning in the grand picture of the global climate.
2. What we see now, however it appears at the moment must be compared with future data to see the big picture. Unfortunately, since what we see NOW (as in, right this moment), doesn’t allow us to compare future and past data, we rely on other methods. The most popular method is a model which shows us a (global) trend. These models receive their fair share of scrutiny from scientists but most are based on empirical data and can successfully model these trends. Again, a review of climate vs. weather is needed before a successful analysis of this point can be achieved.
   
3. Weather is both temporally and regionally constrained. A coincidence between regional areas suffering from similar “cold spells” is not significant in the picture of global climate.
4. China is a communist (and is historically a (socially) isolated) country. We should be careful how we compare qualitative assessments of events happening now in that country with events we suppose we know about their past.
5. Recent arguments that “the ice in Antartica is back” are common misinterpretations (exacerbated by the media) of a study done by Peter Doran, et.al. To read what Dr. Doran really has to say, see this interview transcript. The science shows that the temperature of the Antarctic Peninsula has actually increased by an average of 3°C over the last half century. Also see this page.
6. Sunspot activity is hard to model. The closest thing there is to predicting it is the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel. I find it typical that a journalist (or anyone else who wants to sound intelligent) starts discussing stuff that they haven’t properly researched. What Oleg Sorokhtin is talking about most likely stems from fellow Russian scientist Habibullo Abdussamatov, who has predicted relative cooldowns due to solar (in)activity in the future. There are scientists that have studied whether this sort of activity can be predicted and have found that it is most likely a chaotic process (i.e. prediction is unlikely).
7. Wind has been shown to affect ocean currents. I read the paper a few months ago. This in itself is not an argument against anthropogenic global warming even in the most extremes…it doesn’t fit any logical piece of the puzzle. If you want to talk about the effects then I’m listening. More importantly though, we need to talk about wind itself, how it forms, why it forms, and how climate change will affect it. It also seems to me that the writer is taking all of his points, throwing them in a bucket and drawing them out one line at a time to write his article. It doesn’t make sense if you really think about it. And another thing…most people that believe humans are contributing to global warming get labeled as alarmists…I don’t count myself as an alarmist…(more on this in a bit).

This author is not a scientist. He has taken a snapshot of data obtained a month ago, and compared it to decades (and essentially centuries) of climate data to decide that the entire idea of anthropogenic global warming is a hoax.

I get the sense that people who know me and know what I believe somehow think that I only choose to look at things from one side. This is not true. I read claims by both sides and scrutinize them as equally as possible.

I’m not an alarmist…maybe a little hippy. Something I have tried to make a major focus of my life is personal responsibility. This applies to many aspects of my life. Responsibility requires information and experience…it is gained from making mistakes and thinking about how you affect and are affected by people. That doesn’t mean I’m out burning down development projects, standing on runways to prevent planes from flying, or protesting naked (which everyone is very thankful for me not doing)…it just means that I want to take responsibility for how I affect my surroundings. I’m a geographer because I like to study the earth (coincidentally Climatology is a sub-branch of geography and you will find many climatologists as members of the geography faculty at universities across the globe). I’m an ecologist because I want to know and understand how living things interact with their environment and live in a world we share. I’m an environmentalist because I care about my surroundings and hope that someday my kids and grandkids can experience the same joys as I have.

Politics and Poetics (not Aristotle's version)

I'm back again...still trying to get back in the habit of posting regularly...

Did you watch the primary coverage on Tuesday night?

I didn’t watch it all night, but as I finished the chapter I was reading in an ecology textbook, I decided to flip to CNN and see what was going on. I was shocked to see that Barrack Obama completely dominated Virginia, Maryland, and DC…I was not shocked to see that John McCain continued to add to his delegate count.

Something I would like to talk about are the differences I observed between the speeches of Obama and McCain….

As I watched Barrack Obama, I was once again caught up in his spirit…given he uses a lot of rhetoric and all of it must be scrutinized. But it is also refreshing to hear a politician that can actually motivate…it was both uplifting and inspiring. I paid attention to the demographics of the crowd…Who does this guy have standing around him? Here’s what I observed…students, women, young adults, working class people, normal people…people like us, and they were all AMERICANS…and they were fired up.

In contrast…

When CNN switched over to John McCain I immediately noted the differences…suddenly my mood sunk (that in itself doesn’t really hold any weight with me though). The first few minutes in the speech were dedicated to bashing the other side…mostly with worn-out rhetoric commonly used to attack democrats. I also noted the demographic population surrounding McCain…middle aged to older (can I say elderly) “businessmen” and GOP politicians decked out in their suits and ties standing shoulder to shoulder with the candidate…I suddenly had a sour taste in my mouth…it was the epitome of elitist wealthy bureaucrats. I also noticed the difference of passion…whether Obama is sincere or not, I don’t know (and I wouldn’t venture to guess anybody else knows either), but he sure is convincing. McCain on the other hand spent most of his time reading a teleprompter. It seemed like he was trying to be passionate (already trying to compete with Obama?), but he just can’t sell it very well (with me at least). Maybe it’s just that he’s too old?

I’m really trying hard not to critize too much here…I’m just offering my subjectively objective (if that exists) opinion…

I voted for Obama in Alabama…my part in my state is done for now…

Things are getting interesting and I have a lot to say…I’ll do my best to jot it down and put it up when I have a chance.

Peace

--JF

Do you watch clowns?

I thought it was just a joke...looks like I was wrong. Fox news (apparently all by themselves) have constructed a story about how the fires in California were set by Al Qaeda. Here is my question...Can you honestly take these clowns seriously? Go to this link and watch the video at the bottom and note how serious they seem to be taking it.

With no new evidence, Fox continues to ask: Did al Qaeda burn California?

There comes a time when we must all wake up and smell the roses (or the smoke from my perspective at the moment). Fox news has taken it upon themselves to dream up these stories to promote the "politics of fear" that have plagued us since Bushwhacker (or maybe I should say Cheney...Bush isn't worth the credit) and all the other cronies took over. Enough is Enough!!!

I'm usually willing to give people the benefit of the doubt and am tolerant of other opinions but that tolerance is getting very very thin. If you think we have a competent president then you are stupid...there...I said it...YOU ARE STUPID. I will not go so far as to say either party has anyone that is a savior but please, please quit defending Dubya and get real.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-brooks24oct25,0,7749742.column?coll=la-util-opinion-commentary

Oh, and if you have a college education then you have contributed to the 2nd most dangerous organization in America today. (see below)

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/10/25/tp-one-of-americas-most-dangerous-organizations/

No Danger in Redlands

A lot of people have called the last few days to ask if I am near all the fires in Southern California. The short answer is yes (although "near" is a subjective term). The closest fire is north around Lake Arrowhead but there are so many around it is impossible to tell where all the smoke is coming from. On Sunday while I was on my way to church, the wind was so strong out of the north that I had a hard time keeping my truck on the road. That afternoon several families couldn't make it to church because some of the major interstates around Fontana were closed. On Monday I took a friend to the Ontario airport and the drive was fairly miserable. The sky has been brown and the air has the stench of smoke. On my way to work I can usually see the San Bernardino Mountains clearly, the last few days I wouldn't know they were there if not for just knowing. The last 2 days the smell of smoke has continually gotten stronger.

The good news for me (and I suppose the bad news for some other people) is that there are a lot of urban areas between where I live and the closest fires. I've been keeping an eye on the satellite images that are coming in as well as the maps that delineate the fire perimeter. Several people that work at ESRI have been forced to evacuate and the company is helping them to find temporary places to live. Hopefully the Santa Ana winds will die down and they can get everything under control.

The major concern for me is air quality. I usually sleep with windows open and open my deck door as soon as I come in from work...I haven't been able to do that the past few days. I am supposed to have a boat dive off the coast of Catalina Island on Saturday but the news is reporting that Long Beach is getting some of the worst smoke pollution...Long Beach is where the dive boat leaves from. I guess I will have to wait and see if that trip will be possible.


I will try to keep this posted with any changes I hear about. While I'm thinking about it, I will point you to a link showing how ESRI's free software ArcGIS Explorer is being used by some people to track these fires. It looks like the ArcGIS Explorer team is doing a good job of keeping things posted about the fires as well. ArcGIS Explorer is mainly a viewing software and is limited in its analysis capabilities...but it is still a good read and a demonstration of how important it is to have spatial technology. The link is: http://blogs.esri.com/Info/blogs/arcgisexplorerblog/

and the day's go on...

So what’s going on with Jonathan these days you might ask? Well, not much of anything new. Just the same stuff mostly. Although I have picked up on some new (some might say bad) habits lately. I recently started playing World of Warcraft on my PC. In case you aren’t familiar with this game, it is a MMORPG (Massivly Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game). The reason some people might consider this a bad habit is because it is an addicting game. But I was talked into playing by friends at work. I really enjoy the game. It has the best geography of any game I have ever played (which is limited to a few popular ones but I have concurrences by people who play games 24/7). It’s not that addicting to me. This is probably because I do not enjoy playing computer games “solo.” I only play when my friends are on and we can “quest” together. This is the way I feel about Halo; I enjoy the game but only when there are a bunch of guys (whose age decreases by the current amount and then 12 is added; y = (x-x)+12 where y equals age while playing Halo and x equals current age). World of Warcraft (or WoW for short) is a little more mature because it’s not just running around shooting things. Although I will note that people of any age can play (part of the team is the 10 year old niece of a co-worker, and she is higher level and better than all of us). I usually only play a few hours a week spread out over about 3 days. With new Fall TV shows on now, my WoW time is seriously limited and I can only hold so many episodes of my favorite shows on the TiVo.

I’ve been SCUBA diving a bit. My most recent trip was to the Yukon (a Canadian Destroyer ship) and the Ruby E (a coastguard ship). These are located offshore from San Diego’s Mission Bay. At the Yukon I achieved my deepest depth so far (105 ft) but at that depth there isn’t much exploring that can be done due to the air consumption changes and nitrogen saturation in the body at that depth. The Ruby E was fascinating…after we surfaced I heard someone describe it as looking like a float from the Rose Parade…this is an accurate description because it is covered with strawberry anemones.

The weather in California has been great. The only thing that could be better would be the ability to go bow hunting or throw a spinner bait for fall bass after the seasonal lake turnover. But one day I will be able to do it all again…

I haven’t read a complete book since HP7 (which I will talk about at a later date)…I have decided to go back to some classics that I own but have never read. I’m starting with “The Lost World” (by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle)…I’ve watched a few documentary’s about the actual expeditions that influenced the book and thought it would be interesting to read.

So with that…here are today’s links:

10 Surefire Ways to Kill Your Crabby Mood

Some days we could all use these tips.

Between The Seconds...

An interesting collection of photographs

Give due respect to our soldiers

This is a great article and I agree. This one is well worth the read.

Testimony Details Alleged Rove Ties To Prosecution Of Democratic Governor

Since I’m from Alabama this one is particularly interesting. I know that to some extent most all politicians are corrupt (in one way or another). So the question remains, where do we draw the line...and isn’t it pretty sad that the corruption of one influences the fate of a potentially corrupt other. This sort of stuff is what makes it hard to trust anybody.

Bush White House Eager To Brag to FOXNews; Unconcerned w/National Security

Long-term damage might be an understatement…we shall wait and see.

Squash Self-Doubt, Find Your Confidence

I’ve never had the dress/hair experience but some of this seems like good advice…I will let you know if I use it.

8 Simple Ways to Enjoy Life Every Day

Step back and try some of this…I do some of these things already but am always looking to improve.

The Marines Want Their Forces Removed From Iraq

I’m no military analyst but this makes sense to me. And it also appears that the Marines at least understand where they can be used effectively.

Muslims stake our survival on Christian Peace

This all sounds good and all…but why isn’t anyone (insurgents/militias/etc.) listening? Is there a solution in the mix that I missed?

Microsoft Showing Support for our Fighting Men and Women

A nice deed by Microsoft…I know this sounds unappreciative but how many mouths could be fed for the worth of all those 360’s?

Signatures on Draft Gore petition accelerating dramatically on Eve of Nobel

Oh…if only…

Fantastic printable world map

This one is nothing special but since I’m a geographer I had to include it. Plus as I read the disclaimers down at the bottom I couldn’t help but think of Hiro (if you don’t know who that is then don’t worry…if you do then you get it)

How to make giant soap bubbles

For those boring Saturdays…

Get Smart: How to Boost your IQ by 10 points

Most of these things don’t require much (if any) effort so what’s there to lose?

Flu Pandemic Of 1918

An interesting tidbit of history…

Today's favorite links...(a few minutes late)

It has been a long day so I will limit this to the favorite links of the day (with as much commentary as I feel like noting at the moment).

Is It Time to Just Live With Climate Change?

I’m not ready to give up yet. I have read some of Lomborg’s work (The Skeptical Environmentalist) and I like his analysis but I’m not sure it is complete or an excuse to do nothing.

Stores Know You Don't Like Christmas Marketing In October, But Don't Care

Just thought this was kind of interesting. Other than that it doesn’t really affect my life. (and I’m tired and don’t feel like wasting any of my juice on this story)

RIAA Misinformation Campaign Apparantly Works

Well, I have been anti RIAA since around 2001. These guys are ruthless and yet to the people who watch what is going on, we all realize that they still really aren’t getting anywhere. People are not going to conform to RIAA’s wishes and they need to stop wasting money and either A.) give up, or B.) find a way to distribute affordable music online in a way that is easier than getting it for free (and unfortunately I realize that this probably isn’t going to happen).

The New Power Plants: Human Crowd Farms?

My instinct tells me this probably isn’t going to happen anytime in the near future…but who knows.

A Peek at Halloween Celebrations Throughout the World (Pics)

I love Halloween and as a geographer I am always interested in how different cultures celebrate this differently. Have a look (although some of the North American stuff I am not familiar with).

Ig Nobel awards won by....

Just a fun one here. But find the one about the airforce…maybe we should drop one of those on Iran since they “don’t have that problem.”

Zero Punctuation: Tabula Rasa

If you aren’t an MMORPG’r then you won’t get it…but its funny if you are.

Democratic-Led Congress Breaks Record For Highest Number Of Roll Call Votes

Just interesting statistics…although I’m glad it is led by the Democrats, I would rather see some effective stuff coming out rather than just a bunch of numbers. At least I’m more optimistic now than in the past (even though the approval rating is still terribly low).

The Life of Buddha - Documentary

If you have 49 minutes to learn a little history then take a look…if not then this one can be skipped.

Was A McConnell Staffer Behind The Campaign To Smear The 12 Year Old Boy?

Oh I don’t even feel like getting into this (eyes getting bloodshot)…it’s clear the slander is sinking low (even for Republicans) but let’s just all admit that anybody in politics is going to try to discredit the other at some point. Unfortunately the victim of this one is a 12 year old boy…ugh…I guess this is what I always hear about “good morals.”

The Worst Thing about Macs

If you know somebody that is a huge Apple fan then you will definitely relate to this one. I am a PC user but will concede that Microsoft does a lot of stuff wrong and Apple does some stuff right…but I agree that it’s the kind of people that are Mac fans that are the biggest turn off. I personally wish Microsoft and Apple would both invent a device that made all of their products disintegrate (of course this would be shortly after they were automatically programmed to save all the data to something open source)…

Rudy Resoundingly Booed by New Yorkers at Yankee Game

I could care less about the fact that Rudy doesn’t know the words to “God Bless America.” I just can’t believe that I agree with so many Yankee’s fans…

Top 10 Ways to Sleep Smarter and Better

Good tips…I have read a lot of “Top 10s” but this is one of the best in a while. I think I will try some of these (I really need to work on the exercise/eating/screen usage ones)…

50 Quick, Painless Ways You Can Help the Environment Today

I think I read one of these every day…this one is the best so far. Please read and act!

'24' actor Kiefer Sutherland gets 48 days in jail

And yet another reason that I vote Chuck Norris higher in the ranks…although Jack Bauer is still pretty cool.

Essay: What if Internet Bandwidth Was Infinite?

Interesting thoughts to ponder…but not much to spend daily chats discussing.